Amongst classical scholars there’s long been an interesting thought experiment; is the US the re-incarnation of Rome?

Let’s go through the checklist:-

The era of kings // British imperial rule.

Throwing out the kings and the early republic // the American revolution and the foundation of the Republic (the Senate - now where did that come from?)

The unification of the Italian peninsula under Roman rule // the spread westwards of the US republic through the Louisiana Purchase, Mexican War and the pioneer trails beyond the Appalachians

Battle between the senatorial class and the plebeians - creation of the People’s Assembly and tribunes // the extension of the franchise to women and the abolition of slavery

An existential war against Carthage // fight against Communism

The fall of the republic - increasing political violence, The Gracchi, increasing disparity of wealth, vicious two party system, Marius / Sulla, the crossing of the Rubicon // gridlock, decrease of working ‘across the aisle’ increasing political violence, intolerance for opposing views, non-acceptance of political norms.

The Imperial era brought into being stability and stopped the political violence. The price was dictatorship. Increase in welfare, reliance on slaves, beginnings of feudalism. Christianity. The empire split into two. Collapse. // …

I’ve been aware of the theory for years - it is an intellectual game; history is instructive not necessary predictive and making parallels from one era to another is typically odious. But still…

I’m currently writing about the 1st century BC as part of my five battles per century history of Rome series. This is the century where the Roman Republic became increasingly violent and all the norms of political discourse and traditional checks and balances were thrown aside. It led to ceaseless civil wars before Augustus ended the republic and became Emperor.

It took fifty years from the populism of Tiberius Gracchus to Sulla’s victory outside the walls of Rome in the Battle of the Colline Gate. Reputedly 50,000 died in just that one battle. It was another fifty years between Sulla’s victory and subsequent proscriptions and (short-lived) dictatorship to Augustus’ victory over Antony at Actium and the effective ending of the republic.

One hundred years of violence and death.

I tend to seek refuge in ancient history - it’s a comforting and a harmless pursuit. But as I researched and wrote the history of the first century BC, many awful parallels became more urgent.

Those that don’t know their history are doomed to repeat it, goes a familiar refrain. I would amend that to read, “Those that don’t know their history are doomed to make achingly bad allusions to the collapse of the Weimar Republic and the rise of fascism.” It’s society’s go to - everything’s Hitler, every opponent is his reincarnation. I suppose it’s not that long ago in the scheme of things and history’s a long and complex body of knowledge, never complete, often paradoxical. Collapses can be quick or they can be slow but there are some commonalities.

Civic norms are flimsier than they appear and, it seems to me, violence is never far away from the human condition. Once violence is introduced into a society’s bloodstream, then events afterwards become unpredictable, often dark, very dark. A good place to avoid this is to accept defeat gracefully, concede that your opponents are not necessary evil people, and that the mob, once unleashed, is hard to curtail and unpredictable. Those who let loose the dogs of war do so at their own peril.

As I said, the US being the new Rome is a parlour game, an intellectual exercise. The US is not an empire - though it does often project violence worldwide. It does still have, hopefully, a functioning democracy which will be severely tested this November. I just hope that the result is accepted and that Trump gets a less acrimonious second term or that there is a peaceful and good-natured transfer of power to the Democrats. The road to Actium does not have to be retraced.